The banking system collapsed and with it the central bank. The fundamental question: what functions must financial intermediation fulfill during the transition period? And what banking sector does Lebanon need? At what stage of the transition should the banking sector be rebuilt? The required function of the banking system is to mobilize available internal and […]
We can imagine several possible outcomes of the crisis in which Lebanon found itself sunk in, provided that it is seen as a transition from what no longer exists – even if people keep clinging to it – to that new thing that they find it difficult to imagine soberly. Therefore, the movement of citizens […]
If we adopt the perspective of liquidity, the losses may seem huge, because it is the liquidity that moves depositors, and it has come to mean “real dollars.” Losses occur when two conditions are met: the first, negative differences between the liquid values corresponding to the creditor’s debt bonds, and the second if the institutional […]
After the IMF mission held 14 meetings with the Lebanese government team, two official statements were issued stating that the government’s plan represents a good starting point for ongoing negotiations, and that the IMF staff’s preliminary view is that the reform program ranged closely in its estimates with the assumptions presented. Rumors about replacing the […]
The government estimated the losses based on budgets, so its estimates differed between the successive versions of its program, and formula No. 41 adopted the number 83 billion dollars, while formula No. 42 reduced the number to 63 billion dollars! However, the estimation of the cumulative needs for external financing over the five years of […]
This financial system was able to continue and benefited from the effect of the stimulants of Paris 2. Despite the political tension, the effects of the July war, and the war in Syria, the regime benefited from the rise in oil prices and the increased inflow of money due to the global financial crisis (2008). […]
In light of this political and economic system that began in the mid-1980s, the country witnessed massive immigration and the number of arrivals to Lebanon increased. The number of Lebanese immigrants became equivalent to two-thirds of the number of residing Lebanese. The number of non-Lebanese residents also reached two-thirds of the number of Lebanese residents. […]
Followed pattern results: First, local resources are allocated largely to the production of non-tradable services, and employment opportunities are reduced in sectors producing exchangeable goods and services. Second, the prices of local factors of production have risen without a parallel increase in their productivity, and with the narrow wage labor opportunities, women’s work got restricted […]
Two periods must be distinguished: The first period, between 1993 and 1997, witnessed primary deficits averaging 8% of GDP. The second era came after 2001, when the primary deficits did not exceed 1%. Thus, the political-economic system has adopted, in the first stage, the option of spending without reckoning, betting on regional peace and striving […]
We are aware that the current regime is responsible for the wastage that has occurred over the past few decades. We are equally aware that some groups benefitted from this wastage more than others. However, we do not believe in proposing requests or reforms under this same system and we do not trust any of […]